The Clock on Compassion: How Settlement Misperceptions Shape Support for Refugee Policy

Humanitarian responses to refugees are typically framed as temporary, yet protracted conflicts blur the line between short-term protection and permanent settlement. We argue that public support for inclusive refugee policies depends on whether refugees are perceived as temporary guests or long-term residents. Using a survey experiment in Poland during the Ukrainian refugee crisis, we study whether citizens misperceive refugees’ intentions to settle permanently and whether correcting such “settlement misperceptions” affects support for inclusive refugee policy. Poles substantially overestimate the share of Ukrainians intending to remain indefinitely. These beliefs are strongly associated with lower support for inclusive refugee policy. Providing factual information about refugees’ actual settlement plans leads to meaningful belief updating and shifts in policy preferences. Corrections increase support among overestimators and decrease it among underestimators, with a net positive effect overall. Effects are strongest for welfare-related policies and extend to generalized affect, though not to social distance. Humanitarian attitudes thus hinge partly on temporal expectations.