Context Sensitivity Predicts Prediction Cost: Eye-Movement Evidence from Sentence Reading

Word predictability is a key factor influencing eye movements during reading, yet the cognitive systems supporting predictive processing remain underexplored. This study investigated how contextual predictability shapes reading behavior and whether individual differences in domain-general cognitive control, measured by the AX Continuous Performance Task (AX-CPT), modulate prediction effects. Participants read sentences in predictable, unpredictable, or neutral conditions while their eye movements were recorded. Predictable words elicited shorter fixation durations, while unpredictable words led to longer reading times—though not longer than neutral contexts, which consistently showed the longest durations. This challenges assumptions about the neutrality of such baselines. To assess individual variability, we computed prediction cost (unpredictable - neutral) and prediction benefit (neutral - predictable) and correlated them with AX-CPT indices. Most correlations were not statistically significant, but prediction cost in total reading time was positively associated with d′-context, indicating that individuals more sensitive to cue-based context experienced greater disruption when predictions failed. These findings suggest that domain-general context monitoring may amplify sensitivity to disconfirmed linguistic expectations.Keywords: prediction, sentence reading, eye movements, AX-CPT, individual differences, cognitive control