Cognitive Mechanisms of Predictive Processing in Chinese Reading: An Eye-Movement Analysis Based on the Ex-Gaussian Distribution

This study employed the Ex-Gaussian distribution model to analyse eye-tracking data, to elucidate the cognitive mechanisms underlying predictive processing during Chinese reading. Using a single-factor, two-level within-subjects design (contextual predictability: high vs. low), data from 32 adult readers were analysed across the pre-target and target word regions. The results revealed that predictive reading follows a three-stage cognitive model. In the expectation generation stage (pre-target region), a significant negative τ effect indicated resource pre-allocation driven by strong contextual constraints, thereby facilitating the construction of predictive lexical representations. In the verification and integration stage (target word region), a significant negative μ effect alongside a marginally significant σ effect in the later measurement window indicated that successful prediction–input matching accelerated lexical identification and enhanced integration efficiency. In the conflict resolution stage (pre-target and target word regions), a significant positive τ effect indicated that verification failure triggered lexical activation competition at the target word, driving regressive fixations to the pre-target region for contextual reanalysis; conflict resolution costs were markedly higher under the low-predictability condition, owing to the absence of a dominant activation anchor. These findings suggest that contextual predictability influences reading through a dual mechanism: the μ parameter modulates the automatic processing speed of lexical identification, whereas the τ parameter regulates the cognitive control processes underlying expectation generation and conflict resolution. Together, these results provide empirical support for the integration of predictive coding theory and cognitive control frameworks.