Prospective and Cross-sectional Associations between Affect, and Frequency of Alcohol Use and Binge Drinking Episodes in Rural Black Men

Background: Black men may be especially prone to drinking-to-cope or drinking to alleviate negative affect in early adulthood due to a unique confluence of factors that impact drinking patterns in emerging and early adulthood (e.g., Zapolski et al., 2017). The current study examined how depressive symptoms, hope for one’s future/life chances, negative life events, and socioeconomic wellbeing predicted individual differences in alcohol consumption at and across four timepoints during emerging adulthood. We hypothesized that across time, increases in depression would be associated with decreases in state hope and perceived life chances. Similarly, we anticipated changes in depression, state hope, and perceived life chances would be associated with a greater frequency of alcohol consumption and binge drinking episodes.Methods: Black men (N=504) in rural communities were assessed at four timepoints across emerging adulthood. We examined between and within subject effects across time between harmful alcohol consumption and depression, state hope, and perceived life chances, using regression and random intercept cross-lagged panel modeling (RI-CLPM; Hamaker et al., 2015)Results: Generally, depression increased while hope and perceived life chances decreased across the timepoints. Depression, hope, and perceived life chances did not prospectively predict frequency of alcohol consumption or binge drinking episodes. Conclusions: These findings suggest that despite seeing increased depressive symptoms, decreased hope, and decreased life chances over time, these mood-related factors were not associated with future drinking behaviors among this sample of rural Black men. Future research should explore alternative mechanisms that may drive consumption patterns in this marginalized population.