Suspicious Minds: A Study Exploring the Commonalities and Differences among Conspiracy Beliefs, Paranoid Beliefs, and Conspiracy Mentality in a Nationally Representative Sample.

Introduction. Despite the theoretical overlap between conspiracy beliefs, paranoid beliefs, and conspiracy mentality, their distinctions remain unclear. This study explored these constructs and their clinical significance during the COVID-19 pandemic within a nationally representative sample (N=1497). Materials and Methods. Sociodemographic and psychological variables were measured early in the pandemic (T1), and conspiracy beliefs, paranoid beliefs, and conspiracy mentality were assessed one year later (T2), a period of heightened prevalence of these beliefs. This longitudinal design allowed for an in-depth analysis of how early factors shaped these belief systems. Factor analyses and regression models were employed to disentangle their relationships and identify distinct predictors. Results. Conspiracy beliefs, paranoid beliefs, and conspiracy mentality were confirmed as distinct constructs. Paranoid beliefs were related to psychological factors such as anxiety and intolerance of uncertainty, whereas conspiratorial beliefs were driven by sociopolitical variables such as income and political ideology. External locus of control was the sole predictor of conspiracy mentality. Strong endorsement of coronavirus conspiracy beliefs was rare, with these beliefs showing a skewed distribution similar to paranoid beliefs in the general population. Conclusions. Early psychological and sociodemographic factors shape conspiracy and paranoid-related beliefs. These findings highlight the importance of tailored interventions targeting distinct predictors with critical implications for mental health and public health strategies.