The conspicious (conspiracist and suspicious) mindset trap: Longitudinal bidirectional relationships between precarity, institutional trust and conspiracy beliefs

The paper reports findings of a preregistered longitudinal replication examining the extent to which institutional trust mediates the relationship between individuals’ sense of precarity and their adherence to conspiracy beliefs. Across three waves, 925 participants (50.2% female) between the age of 18 and 85 (M = 49.53; SD = 15.81) reported subjective appraisals of their financial situation (precarity), trust in eight institutions (e.g., Slovak government and president, European Union), and adherence to conspiracy beliefs. The results point to a self-enhancing nature of the relationship between the variables which show to be intrinsically intertwined and, with time, reinforce their aversive effects on one another. Unlike cross-sectional studies replicated here, the current results support the view that the sense of precarity is an outcome of adherence to conspiracy beliefs rather than its cause, while institutional (dis)trust and conspiracy beliefs show a consistently bidirectional pattern jointly contributing to the formation of conspicious (conspiracist + suspicious) mindset. As a consequence, conspiracy theorists may fall into a trap of conspiracy beliefs, suspicions, and pessimistic appraisal of their living (economic and institutional) circumstances. The paper discusses theoretical and practical consequences of the bidirectionality as the findings may substantially contribute to our understanding of conspiracy beliefs and consideration of potential interventions aimed at mitigating their real-life ramifications.