Reading Literacy Decline in Europe: Disentangling School Closures and Out-of-School Learning Conditions

Background. This study examines the decline in average reading literacy among primary school students in European countries between 2016 and 2021, as the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) documented. This period is characterized by disruptions due to COVID-19-related school closures and changes in student composition, influenced mainly by societal trends across many European countries.Aims. We estimated trends in reading literacy adjusted for changes in student composition to assess the relationship between the duration of school closures and school-related learning loess.Sample. We utilized data from 2016 and 2021 from 18 European countries/regions as part of the PIRLS, involving a representative sample of approximately 5,000 fourth graders per year and country/region (N = 187,386; Mean Age = 10.28, SD = 0.86; 49.50% female).Methods. Our analytical approach employed propensity score weighting to balance changes in student composition between the 2016 and 2021 cohorts.Results. Our findings revealed changes in student composition across most of the 18 countries/regions. First, the average adjusted decline in reading literacy across all 18 European countries/regions was significantly lower than the observed decline, but it remained substantial. Second, the expected decline was associated with the length of COVID-related school closures, estimated at ‒0.0015 SDs per day.Conclusions. School closures and changes in the composition of student cohorts played a substantial role in the decline in reading literacy observed between 2016 and 2021. This study enhances our understanding of how student composition and school-related factors influence trends in reading literacy.