Growing administrative prevalence of autism spectrum disorder among English school pupils: heterogeneity and implications

Using national pupil data in England, this study examines trends in autism identification by sex, ethnicity, socio-economic status, co-occurring needs and age. We find that growth has been especially rapid among girls and pupils without a learning disability, suggesting a widening of the recognised autism profile. We also find autistic pupils remain disproportionately likely to be from more deprived backgrounds. Administrative autism prevalence now peaks at the point of secondary school transition, indicating a “locked-in” future increase in demand for educational and clinical support. These findings highlight the need for forward planning to meet the growth and evolving profile of pupils with autism-related needs.