Projection Underlies Both Ingroup Favoritism and Subjective Growth

The Inductive Reasoning Model (Krueger et al., 2024a; Krueger et al., 2024b) describes how differential projection generates several known patterns in the perception of groups including ingroup favoritism. Extending the model to temporal self-perception, we predicted that much like people project more strongly to ingroups than to outgroups they will also project more strongly to their future self than to their past self. Using self-ratings of pseudowords, we predicted that this differential projection would produce ingroup favoritism and subjective growth. Results of a preregistered online experiment (N = 300) with a minimal group manipulation were in line with these predictions. Separating the unique effects of projection and social desirability, we find that people actively enhance their ingroups and their future selves, beyond the levels that can be expected based on differential projection. We discuss implications for understanding the relationship between social and temporal perception.