Confident judgments of (mis)information veracity are more, rather than less, accurate

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Abstract

Does confidence help or hinder the recognition of misinformation? The answer remains unclear: Some research has found that more confident people are more vulnerable to misinformation and inaccurate beliefs, while other work suggests that more confident judgments are more accurate. Here, we clarify the association between confidence and misinformation detection by measuring both general confidence in one’s abilities and specific confidence in particular judgments. In a large, pre-registered study (N=503) on Lucid where participants judge the accuracy of news posts, we demonstrate both previously discussed patterns simultaneously. While higher general confidence is associated with worse discernment of true versus false headlines, higher confidence in specific judgments is associated with better truth discernment. These results underscore the fundamental difference between general confidence and confidence in specific judgments and offer a unifying framework for understanding the complex relationship between confidence and the ability to tell fact from fiction.

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