When Belief in Warranted Conspiracy Theories is Warranted: Conspiracy Mentality and Belief in Warranted and Unwarranted Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracy mentality is theorised to be a broad predisposition comprising a conspiratorial worldview. While much is known about conspiracy mentality and unwarranted conspiracy belief, little is known about belief in warranted conspiracies and how it relates to conspiracy mentality. The present research addresses these gaps by examining how belief in warranted conspiracies relates to conspiracy mentality across two studies. Study 1 examined the relationship between conspiracy mentality and belief in warranted conspiracies. We also examined the fit of single and two-factor solutions for conspiracy mentality and warranted conspiracy items. In Study 1, 331 American residents recruited from Prolific first completed the warranted conspiracy belief measure, followed by the Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire. Study 2 examined the relationship between conspiracy mentality, and both warranted and unwarranted conspiracies. As in Study 1, we tested the fit of a single and two-factor solution for conspiracy mentality items and warranted conspiracy items. In Study 2, 412 American residents were recruited from Prolific. They first completed the Conspiracy Mentality Questionnaire, followed by either the General Conspiratorial Belief Scale or warranted conspiracy belief measure, depending on which of the two they were randomly assigned to complete first, followed by the other. We found that although both relationships were strong and positive, conspiracy mentality was more strongly correlated with unwarranted conspiracy beliefs than with warranted conspiracy beliefs. Finally, in both studies, CFA revealed a single-factor solution was a poor fit for conspiracy mentality items and warranted conspiracy items, and that while a better fit, a two-factor solution was also poor. In contrast to the pejorative manner that high conspiracy belief is often portrayed in literature, our findings suggest that there may be value in having a high conspiracy mentality, in that those with higher conspiracy mentalities are more likely to be aware of warranted conspiracies. Furthermore, the poor fit of the one-factor solution extends prior research by showing that conspiracy mentality is distinct not only from unwarranted conspiracies but also from warranted conspiracies.