Understanding and predicting cultural change

Human societies are not static; they exhibit constant change in customs, norms, and deep-seated psychological tendencies. Whereas social psychology often makes claims about such changes, these are chiefly based on static, cross-sectional inferences. This chapter reviews our program of research on understanding cultural change, arguing that robust theories demand empirical testing with time-series data. We challenge the static nature of the field, demonstrating how societal shifts in individualism, gender equality, and fertility rates can be understood as adaptive responses to changing physical and social ecological conditions. We then situate this ecological framework in relation to other major theories of cultural change. Building on this framework, we explore the impact of the emerging “digital ecology” on cultural transmission and the importance of culture-ecology feedback loops. Finally, we discuss the new frontiers of a predictive science of cultural dynamics, including efforts to forecast the future, “retrodict” the past, and develop new tools, such as AI-based Historical Large Language Models, for the study of cultural dynamics.