Shifting Routes, Shifting Attitudes

This study examines how historical cross-cultural interactions under market conditions influenced pre-industrial values and shaped democratic attitudes, revealing how shifts in trade routes altered cultural dynamics over time. By focusing on proximity to choke points—namely the Bosphorus, Suez, Gibraltar, Bab-el-Mandeb, Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Malacca—I capture pre-1500 CE cross-cultural exchanges driven by historical trade. Additionally, I assess how 19th-century advancements in seafaring—which shifted the importance of trade toward ports, as proxied by the distance to the closest natural harbors—affected contemporary democratic attitudes. The findings reveal a “cultural reversal” effect: regions once characterized by high democratic values due to robust cross-cultural interactions now exhibit diminished support for democratic institutions. This shift is tied to geopolitical changes, including the decline in cross-cultural exchange in previously diverse regions following the rounding of the Cape of Good Hope and the rise of Atlantic trade. Crucially, for contemporary democratic support, it is the distance from a respondent’s ancestral ethnic homeland—rather than their current location—that proves decisive, highlighting the enduring cultural imprint of these historical trade-driven interactions. While natural harbors had no measurable impact on the pre-industrial roots of democratic values, they have played a key role in fostering democratic support through 19th-century seafaring innovations.