Models of Future Food Systems Should Address Transformation Complexity and Uncertainty

Food systems face increasing, multi-dimensional pressures that demand fully integrated assessments of environmental, social, health, nutritional, and economic dimensions to inform their transformation. Food system models traditionally designed for market-driven optimisation and economic efficiency may not be well suited to address these emerging needs, limiting their ability to support decisions and participatory processes effectively. Here we evaluate the extent to which current models represent food system transformations and identify challenges and opportunities in relation to key aspects of transformative change, including the representation of socio-political dynamics and human-nature feedbacks, links between global and local scales, robustness under uncertainty, and flexibility to evolving stakeholder needs. Based on an evaluation of current food system models, we identify ways forward to enhance the potential usefulness of modelling tools. Key research priorities include rethinking how models are designed, emphasising modularity and a diversification of models, as well as rethinking how models are used, suggesting their more effective integration into social and decision-making processes. Enhancing the utility of food system models is expected to prioritise and guide the practical activities involved in transforming food systems.