Evaluation and prediction of the Effects of Planetary Orbital Variations to Earth’s Temperature Changes

Existing climate studies mainly assessed the effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols, among other forcings on Earth’s temperature. None of them has not evaluated the effect of the planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature. Here, we deconvolved the effects of greenhouse gases and planetary orbital changes on Earth’s temperature and to forecast the latter at different time scales. Our results suggest that Earth’s revolution and rotation prompted ~75.4% and 15.9% of the observed Earth’s intra-annual temperature changes, while Moon’s revolution and other planet motions accounted for 8.3% and 0.3%, respectively. Planetary orbits contributed to ~11.5% of global warming since 1837 and will continue to warm the Earth by ~0.13 °C from 2020 to 2027. However, planetary orbits may trigger ~0.25 °C of Earth’s cooling from 2027 to 2050, which is still far below the impact of CO2 and will not be enough to reverse the warming trend.The changes in Earth's temperature are determined by the orbital changes of planets and the impact of human activities. The changes in planetary orbits are beyond human control, so studying the impact of planetary orbit changes on Earth's temperature changes is crucial for the long-term development of humanity. This study has opened up a new research direction for climate change and is of milestone significance.