Global geographic variation in climate concern at national and sub-national scales

Addressing global climate change requires policy action by governments in every country and at every geographic scale. Yet, we lack systematic data on climate change opinions around the world, particularly at the sub-national scales critical to many policy processes. Here, we model country and sub-national concern about climate change using a Bayesian item response theory model. We draw on almost 3.9 million survey responses from 97 surveys conducted between 2002 and 2023. We estimate public concern about climate change in 166 countries and 2,188 sub-national regions, representing 97.9% of the global population. Our results indicate substantial heterogeneity in climate concern, both nationally and sub-nationally. We highlight strong sub-national heterogeneity in climate concern in some of the countries most pivotal to global climate action, contrasted with relative homogeneity in other places. Our findings offer an important resource for policymakers, scientists, advocates, and educators working to address climate change and plan for its impacts.