When Climate Hits Home: Local Economies and Pro-Environmentalism in Congressional Politics

Despite scientific consensus on the realities of climate change, environmental policy remains among the most contentious issues in the United States Congress. How are local economic realities reflected in political representation amid polarization? Using original data on campaign commitments and legislative activity, we examine whether climate disaster risk and energy-sector composition are associated with greater pro-environmentalism among congressional politicians. We find asymmetric partisan effects. Republicans representing districts with higher baseline vulnerability to climate disasters are more likely to adopt pro-environmental campaign commitments and support pro-environmental legislation in Congress. Democrats from districts with high dependence on carbon-intensive industries for constituent employment are less likely to advocate for pro-environmental policies during campaigns, but they consistently maintain strong pro-environmental legislative records, regardless of district composition. These findings reveal that local economic pressures correspond with some Republicans' support for climate action while Democratic behavior remains largely stable, identifying promising opportunities for cross-party coalition building.