Violence as Craft: How Violence Shapes Voter Preferences

It is well known that political violence hardens existing political identities. Depart- ing from conventional wisdom, we argue that violence can be used to transform rather than maintain partisan identities and preferences. We propose that political parties can sponsor violence around a secondary cleavage – that is, a hitherto politically inac- tive social cleavage – to establish a relationship with those sharing the social identity. Exposure to violence leads citizens to identify more closely with the secondary identity, become more hostile towards the out-group on the secondary cleavage dimension, and shift electoral support towards the sponsors of violence. We explore the empirical impli- cations of our argument in India, relying on the subnational expansion of India’s largest party and its sponsorship of violent religious rallies as a test case. To demonstrate the effects of violence on voting, we compare vote shares in polling stations witnessing violent rallies before elections to those experiencing them after. Results show that vote shares for the sponsors of violence increase in locations with violence before elec- tions. We establish causal mechanisms through an original survey along the routes of violent rallies and a qualitative analysis of politicians’ campaign narratives. We find that exposure to violence increases identification with the secondary identity and inter- group polarization; moreover, political parties use violence to appeal to voters sharing the social identity. Our findings establish violence as a tool for identity transformation.