Pig herd management and infection transmission dynamics: a challenge for modellers

  1. Vianney Sicard
  2. Sébastien Picault
  3. Mathieu Andraud

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Abstract

The control of epidemics requires a thorough understanding of the complex interactions between pathogen transmission, disease impact, and population dynamics and management. Mechanistic epidemiological modelling is an effective way to address this issue, but handling highly structured and dynamic systems, remains challenging. We therefore developed a novel approach that combines Multi-Level Agent-Based Systems (MLABS) with spatial and temporal organization, allowing for a tuned representation of the transmission processes amongst the host population. We applied this method to model the spread of a PRRSv-like virus in pig farms, integrating the clinical consequences (conception and reproduction failures), in terms of animal husbandry practices. Results highlighted the importance to account for spatial and temporal structuring and herd management policies in epidemiological models. Indeed, disease-related abortions, inducing reassignments of sows in different batches, was shown to enhance the transmission process, favouring the persistence of the virus at the herd level. Supported by a declarative Domain-Specific Language (DSL), our approach provides flexible and powerful solutions to address the issues of on-farm epidemics and broader public health concerns. The present application, based on a simple Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model, opens the way to the representation of more complex epidemiological systems, including more specific features such as maternally derived antibodies, vaccination, or dual infections, along with their respective clinical consequences on the management practices.

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  1. Version published to 10.24072/pcjournal.403
  2. Peer Community in Animal Science

    Epidemics such as PRRSv-like virus in pig farms has tremendous impact on the competitiveness of swine production. However, its control requires an understanding of the complex interaction between pathogen transmission, disease impact, population dynamics and management. By using mechanistic epidemiological modelling, Sicard et al. (2023) open up a very interesting field of possibilities. This article describes work aimed at assessing the consequences of infections, taking into account the interaction between clinical outcomes and population dynamics. This study shows how this interaction can influence transmission dynamics at the herd level. It highlights the need to further explore this direction, integrating both disease impacts in breeding practices and structural changes in population dynamics, such as pig crossbreeding and grouping methodologies.
    The provision of a new tool making it possible to model herd management practices and the transmission of a virus, such as PRRS, in time and space is a major contribution to understanding the dynamics of this category of diseases. It opens up the possibility of being able to represent specific herd structures and evaluate transmission dynamics using real data. This work improves our understanding of disease spread across herds, taking into account herd management.

    Reference

    Sicard V, Picault S, Andraud M (2023) Pig herd management and infection transmission dynamics: a challenge for modellers. bioRxiv, 2023.05.17.541128. ver. 2 peer-reviewed and recommended by Peer Community in Animal Science. https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.05.17.541128

     

     

     

     

     

  3. Version published to 10.1101/2023.05.17.541128 on bioRxiv