Early Phasic Containment of COVID-19 in Substantially Affected States of India
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Abstract
Introduction: India is experiencing the global COVID-19 pandemic caused with the infection of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2). To explore the early epidemic course and the effectiveness of lockdowns on COVID-19 pandemic in some worst-affected Indian states. Methods: Using publicly available real data and model-based prediction, the growth rate, case fatality rate, serial interval, and time-varying reproduction number (R) of COVID-19 were estimated, before and after lockdown implementation in India. Results: The spread of COVID-19 epidemic in some highly-impacted Indian states displayed a characteristic sub-exponential growth projected up to 3 May 2020, as a consequence of lockdown strategies, in addition to improvement of reproduction number (R), serial interval, and daily growth rate, but not case fatality rate (CFR). The effect of COVID-19 containment was more prominent in second phase of lockdown with declining R, which was still >1. Conclusion: The current findings suggest the requirement of sustained interventions for effective containment of COVID-19 pandemic in Indian context. Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Indian states, epidemiological parameters, lockdown effect.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.05.20092130: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.05.05.20092130: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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