Risk Factors Associated With SARS-CoV-2 Breakthrough Infections in Fully mRNA-Vaccinated Individuals: Retrospective Analysis

  1. Cong Liu
  2. Junghwan Lee
  3. Casey Ta
  4. Ali Soroush
  5. James R Rogers
  6. Jae Hyun Kim
  7. Karthik Natarajan
  8. Jason Zucker
  9. Yehoshua Perl
  10. Chunhua Weng

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Abstract

COVID-19 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines have demonstrated efficacy and effectiveness in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, while being relatively safe in trial studies. However, vaccine breakthrough infections have been reported.

Objective

This study aims to identify risk factors associated with COVID-19 breakthrough infections among fully mRNA-vaccinated individuals.

Methods

We conducted a series of observational retrospective analyses using the electronic health records (EHRs) of the Columbia University Irving Medical Center/New York Presbyterian (CUIMC/NYP) up to September 21, 2021. New York City (NYC) adult residences with at least 1 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) record were included in this analysis. Poisson regression was performed to assess the association between the breakthrough infection rate in vaccinated individuals and multiple risk factors—including vaccine brand, demographics, and underlying conditions—while adjusting for calendar month, prior number of visits, and observational days in the EHR.

Results

The overall estimated breakthrough infection rate was 0.16 (95% CI 0.14-0.18). Individuals who were vaccinated with Pfizer/BNT162b2 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] against Moderna/mRNA-1273=1.66, 95% CI 1.17-2.35) were male (IRR against female=1.47, 95% CI 1.11-1.94) and had compromised immune systems (IRR=1.48, 95% CI 1.09-2.00) were at the highest risk for breakthrough infections. Among all underlying conditions, those with primary immunodeficiency, a history of organ transplant, an active tumor, use of immunosuppressant medications, or Alzheimer disease were at the highest risk.

Conclusions

Although we found both mRNA vaccines were effective, Moderna/mRNA-1273 had a lower incidence rate of breakthrough infections. Immunocompromised and male individuals were among the highest risk groups experiencing breakthrough infections. Given the rapidly changing nature of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, continued monitoring and a generalizable analysis pipeline are warranted to inform quick updates on vaccine effectiveness in real time.

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  1. Version published to 10.2196/35311
  2. Version published to 10.2196/preprints.35311
  3. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.10.05.21264583: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  4. Version published to 10.1101/2021.10.05.21264583v1 on medRxiv