National Near Real-Time Vaccine Effectiveness Against COVID-19 Severe Outcomes Using the Screening Method Among Older Adults Aged ≥ 50 Years in Canada

Background/Objectives: It is critical to monitor real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in older adults as they have been identified as a priority group for vaccination. This is the first study that aims to estimate national absolute vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against severe COVID-19 outcomes among Canadian older adults aged ≥ 50 years. Methods: The screening method (SM) was implemented using standard and spline-based logistic regression models to estimate aVE and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by outcome, age group, vaccination status, time since last dose, vaccine schedules, and variant of concern (VOC) period. Results: From August 1, 2021 to November 30, 2023, there were 103,822 severe COVID-19 cases, of which 72.9% were hospitalized, 8.2% were admitted to ICU, and 18.9% had died. A total of 23.1% of these cases were unvaccinated against COVID-19, 21.9% completed a primary series only, and 55.0% received at least one additional/booster dose. National aVE against severe COVID-19 outcomes remained moderate to high during Delta and original Omicron VOC predominance periods. Monthly age-specific aVE of at least two additional/booster doses remained stable during recombinant XBB.1.5/EG.5 VOC predominance, ranging from 61.0% (95% CI: 51.9–68.4%) to 69.8% (95% CI: 67.5–72.0%) against hospitalization, and 71.0% (95% CI: 62.8–77.4%) to 77.2% (95% CI: 74.2–79.9%) against ICU admission/death. Adjusted aVE was higher for last booster doses received within the past six months and with heterologous mRNA vaccine schedules. Conclusions: The SM is a useful method to estimate aVE in near real-time, enabling the assessment of temporal changes in aVE, guiding vaccine policy, and building vaccine confidence among populations at higher risk of severe outcomes.