Build Fences or File Papers? Land Fragmentation, Tenure Security, and Farmer-Herder Conflict in Nigeria

This study investigates the role of smallholder land fragmentation and tenure insecurity in Nigeria’s persistent farmer-herder conflict. Specifically, it examines (i) whether the inverse farm-size-productivity (IR) relationship persists under violent contestation, (ii) how plot fragmentation mediates crop-damage risk, and (iii) whether community-based tenure reform reduces fatalities and enhances agricultural yields. We employ a mixedmethods approach, combining four waves of household panel data (2,208 households; 1,842 geo-referenced plots, 2017-2023), spatially explicit ACLED conflict records, and a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences (DiD) evaluation of Nigeria’s 2018 National Livestock Transformation Plan (NLTP) community certificates. Household fixed-effects regressions confirm the IR persists under conflict (β = -0.31, s.e. 0.04), while each additional fragmented plot raises the probability of herder-induced crop damage by 11 percentage points, increasing to 16 p.p. on undocumented plots. Eventstudy DiD estimates show that NLTP certificates reduce fatalities by 38% (-0.38 per 1,000 population, s.e. 0.12) and increase maize yields by 18% (0.35 t ha⁻¹) within 18 months post-issuance, with strongest effects for female-managed plots and densely populated LGAs. Qualitative interviews corroborate these findings, highlighting improved boundary clarity, faster compensation, and reduced disputes. The study demonstrates that low-cost, group-oriented tenure reform simultaneously enhances productivity, mitigates lethal conflict, and reduces gender and spatial inequalities, providing a scalable blueprint for land governance in Nigeria and the wider West African region.