No detectable inflection point in U.S. oil and gas methane emissions following the Inflation Reduction Act

The U.S. federal government undertook a flurry of new actions to monitor and regulate methane emissions beginning in years 2021 and 2022, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The IRA and Waste Emissions Charge (WEC) represent a historic legislative effort to regulate U.S. methane emissions, yet its early effectiveness remains empirically unverified. Here we estimate changes in U.S. oil and gas methane emissions during 2019--2024 using an inverse model constrained by satellite observations. We find no detectable inflection point in U.S. oil and gas methane emissions in the years following these legislative and regulatory actions. Although methane emissions intensity from the oil and gas sector declined by 9.3--13.6\% during 2019--2024, this trend likely reflects gradual technological, operational, and regulatory developments rather than any abrupt shift associated with federal policy. Furthermore, we identify a divergence in inventory reliability: state-level inventories align with satellite estimates in the highest emitting states with greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets but underestimate emissions by a factor of about 4 in the highest emitting states without GHG targets. Our results underscore the limitations of transient legislative signals, suggesting that without long-term regulatory durability, the industry lacks the incentive to commit to methane emission reductions.