Identification of Migration-Driven Sprawl using SDG 11.3.1 Indicator and Land Use Analysis: A Case Study of Guwahati Metropolitan District, India

Urban expansion in metropolitan cities is increasingly shaped by migration, population distribution, declining land-use efficiency, and intensive land development. This study analyzes the relationship between migration dynamics and urban expansion, using census-based data, derived land-use data (GLC), and the SDG 11.3.1 framework in the Kamrup Metropolitan district of Assam, India. Land cover was extracted for 2001, 2011, and 2021. Population and migration data were taken from the census of India (2001 and 2011). Proportional allocation and binary discriminant mapping technique were utilized to estimate migration at the sub-district level. LCRPGR, AAPDEA, and MLCNI indicators were used to assess urban expansion and land-use efficiency. The study's findings reveal that agriculture and vegetated land are the primary classes converted to built-up areas. Migration became a dominant driver of population growth, and by 2021, migrants accounted for a majority of the district's population. This study shows how well the SDG 11.3.1 indicator performs in detecting migration-driven sprawl, underscoring the pressing need for strategic planning to use urban land more efficiently.