Future Distribution Dynamics of the Forestry Pest Batocera horsfieldi and Its Implications for Forestry and Urban Green Spaces in China

Batocera horsfieldi is a significant forestry pest with a devastating impact on China's forestry, urban landscaping, and green spaces. To investigate the potential distribution of B. horsfieldi across the country under climate change and its potential threat to forestry and urban landscaping, this study utilized the species distribution modeling platform Biomod2. By combining B. horsfieldi distribution data with bioclimatic and topographic variables, we predicted changes in suitable habitats and key climate factors and analyzed the shift in its centroid under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. The results showed that the main environmental factors influencing the distribution of B. horsfieldi include the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), annual mean temperature (bio1), temperature seasonality (bio4), and mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9). The current suitable habitats for B. horsfieldi are mainly concentrated in the Sichuan Basin, the middle and lower Yangtze River Plain, the North China Plain, and coastal urban areas. In the future, highly and moderately suitable areas will expand to higher latitudes or elevations (except for a decrease of 467 km ² in the 2070s under the Emca pathway), and the centroid of suitable habitats will continue to shift northward. Climate change may increase the risk of pest outbreaks, and these findings provide a scientific reference for early warning, monitoring, and control of B. horsfieldi in Xinjiang and northern China.