Nationalist versus regional approaches for increased battery mineral value addition in Southern Africa

The global energy transition is intensifying demand for battery minerals, many of which are abundant in Southern Africa. Despite the region's resource wealth, most minerals are exported as raw ores, limiting value capture. Using a novel geospatial modelling suite, we simulate mineral processing strategies for six key battery minerals across 14 Southern African countries, evaluating economic, infrastructure, and environmental outcomes. Contrasting a business-as-usual scenario with one targeting manufacturing inputs to battery precursor, results show regional collaboration generates 40% higher net export revenues (up to US$185 billion by 2040) than nationalist approaches. However, realising this potential requires infrastructure investment since regional strategies increase freight volumes by 33% and electricity capacity by 37% compared to nationalist approaches. Introducing environmental constraints can reduce emissions and water use by 28–37% without halting industrialisation. Regional cooperation enables value capture and economic diversification but requires coordinated investment, benefit-sharing, and joint governance.