Accelerating renewable deployment under rapid growth of electricity demand

Climate mitigation efforts aim to electrify end uses of energy and rapidly expand the share of zero-carbon electricity, and especially electricity from renewable sources such as solar and wind. Yet recent growth in renewable generation worldwide (541.7 TWh per year 2020–2024) has not kept up with rising electricity demand (999.6 TWh per year over the same period), and thus substantial decreases in fossil-derived electricity have not occurred. Here, we assess these recent trends in the context of climate mitigation scenarios, using up-to-date, power plant specific data and a stock turnover model to assess how different trajectories of renewable deployment and electricity demand may impact both decarbonization pathways and the feasibility of climate targets. We find it plausible that growth in fossil generation could turn negative by 2030, if the fraction of renewable generation growth over electricity demand growth can accelerate from 54.2% over the half a decade to ~130% between 2025 and 2030. An even faster shift to clean electricity, stronger efficiency improvements to temper total demand, and carbon management at scale will be required to decrease committed emissions in line with international climate goals.