Integrated Assessment of Food-System and Land-Based Environmental Impacts Under Blue Growth Scenarios

The integration of aquatic or ‘blue’ foods into global food system assessments is crucial for achieving sustainable development goals. By adapting the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) to account for the demand and supply of shared resources across marine and terrestrial food production systems, we assess future land-use changes and associated sustainability indicators under alternative blue food scenarios. Our results demonstrate that shifting diets towards fish products can prevent 11-16 Mha of forest and natural vegetation conversion and reduce emissions by up to 125 MtCO2e/year compared to baseline scenarios. The study also reveals that a minimum 2.3-fold increase in fed aquaculture production above 2020 levels is necessary to meet global demand by 2050, even in low fish consumption scenarios. These findings highlight the critical role of blue foods in mitigating environmental impacts of food production and emphasize the need for integrated land-sea management approaches in global food security planning.