How far are global croplands from environmental sustainability ?

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Abstract

Current agri-food production puts significant pressures on our planet. Yet which crops exceed environmental boundaries, by how much, and where remains unclear. Here we present a global, high-resolution (~9 km), crop-specific assessment of cropland environmental sustainability circa 2020, evaluating greenhouse gas emissions, nitrogen use, freshwater use, biomass appropriation, and biodiversity loss against locally-defined environmental boundaries. Less than 1% of cropland operates below all five boundaries, while one-quarter exceeds four or more, with critical hotspots in South and East Asia and across OECD countries. Boundary transgressions are largely driven by regional staple crops such as wheat, maize, and rice, with contributions varying across environmental dimensions. Yet, mapping the crops responsible for local boundary exceedances reveals strong spatial heterogeneity in the levers for sustainability transitions. Our findings provide a spatially-explicit, crop-specific diagnosis of global cropland environmental sustainability, offering a foundation for policies to steer production toward environmental targets.

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