Intertemporal economic valuation and depletion pathways of metallic mineral resources in La Libertad, Peru: Implications for sustainable management under Hotelling’s rule

The exploitation of metallic mineral resources in territories highly dependent on mining poses a central sustainability challenge, as increases in production and current revenues do not necessarily guarantee the sustainable economic valuation of mineral stock in the long term. In this context, the aim of the study was to evaluate the intertemporal economic valuation and depletion pathways of gold and silver resources in La Libertad, Peru, and to examine their implications for sustainable management under Hotelling’s rule. A quantitative, applied, and non-experimental study was conducted based on official data on reserves, production, prices, and interest rates. Price, revenue, and net present value trajectories were projected for the 2025–2040 period, extraction pathways were simulated until reserve exhaustion, and a sensitivity analysis was performed under variations in prices and interest rates. The results showed that gold reserves would be exhausted in approximately eight years, whereas silver would reach a depletion horizon of nearly sixty-four years. Although projected nominal revenues increased steadily, net present value remained nearly stable, ranging from USD 3.49 to 3.54 billion for gold and from USD 28.69 to 29.26 million for silver. It is concluded that extractive sustainability depends not only on reserves and prices, but also on the rate of extraction, the economic lifespan of the stock, and the financial conditions under which the resource is valued.