Leading Countries in Olive Oil Exports and Global Quantity and Revenue Estimates for the Years 2024-2028

This study aims to predict how olive oil, which has increased in export volume and value, will evolve over the next five years in key countries and worldwide. The SAS 9.4 statistical application was used to assess FAOSTAT data from 1961 to 2023 using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach. This study examined Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), Concentration Ratio (CR), and market rivalry over a period of 10 years. The HHI index consistently surpasses 1,800, indicating oligopolistic market characteristics, while the CR ₅ values consistently surpass 80%. CR ₁ always exceeds 30%, making Spain the market leader in terms of export volume and value. The 2021–2023 and 2024–2028 HHI values are 0.232–0.241 and 231–237, respectively, while CR ₅ is 85.14–86.72 and 84.42–85.44, indicating the continued dominance of these five countries, albeit with a minor decrease. Spain will maintain its leadership by increasing production volume but decreasing value in 2021–2023 and 2024–2028. Italy maintained its quantity and value leadership, although its value share has declined. Tunisia's value share drop despite increasing production, Greece's depreciation despite steady output, and Portugal's gain despite falling production show the importance of quality-focused initiatives in 2024–2028. Türkiye will rank 6th in export volume and value, with 4.60% and 3.66% shares, respectively. Climate change-induced production declines in Spain, Greece, and Portugal have caused supply shortages and price increases, although leading countries have maintained export income. In a monopolistic market, top countries can earn more money with fewer items by focusing on quality, setting prices correctly, and regulating the market strategically to mitigate climatic risks.