Longitudinal Analysis of Routine Childhood Vaccination Coverage of Selected Vaccines in Nigeria (1980-2023) using the Global Burden of Disease Study (2023)

Background Routine childhood immunization remains one of the most effective public health interventions for reducing morbidity and mortality from vaccine-preventable diseases. Despite global progress, vaccination coverage in many low- and middle-income countries remains suboptimal. This study examines long-term trends in routine childhood vaccination coverage in Nigeria from 1980 to 2023. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, particularly annual national coverage estimates for five key vaccines: BCG, DTP3, Polio3, MCV1, and HepB3, trends were assessed using line plots and forest plots to evaluate changes in mean coverage and associated uncertainty intervals over time. The highest and lowest performing years for each vaccine were identified. Results Coverage for all vaccines was lowest in 1980, followed by expansion in the late 1980s and early 1990s, stagnation in the mid-1990s to early 2000s, and renewed improvement after 2005. Peak coverage occurred between 2019 and 2021 for most vaccines. However, national coverage remained below optimal thresholds throughout the study period. Confidence intervals narrowed over time, suggesting improved data reliability. Conclusion While Nigeria has made substantial progress in routine immunization over four decades, persistent structural and regional inequities limit universal coverage. Strengthened primary health care systems, targeted subnational strategies, and sustained community engagement are essential to achieve equitable and durable improvements.