Evaluation of the public health and economic impact of universal influenza vaccination in Mexico

Background Influenza continues to represent a substantial global public health challenge. Although vaccination is the most effective intervention to mitigate its impact, current strategies offer room for enhancement. This study evaluates the potential health and economic benefits of adopting a Universal Influenza Vaccination (UIV) strategy in Mexico. Methods To evaluate the potential impact of a UIV program during a typical influenza season, we conducted a retrospective analysis applying United States vaccination coverage rates to age groups not currently targeted by Mexico’s national immunization strategy. An epidemiological model was developed to simulate influenza transmission and vaccination effects. Outputs from this model were subsequently integrated into a health economic framework populated with local data. Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore parameter uncertainty and assess the robustness of the results. Results During a typical influenza season, implementation of the UIV strategy was projected to reduce disease burden, with an estimated 57.94% decrease in influenza cases (95% CI: 40.56%–71.21%). This translated into reductions of 57.65% (40.32%–70.93%) fewer medical consultations, 56.23% (39.86%–69.05%) in hospital admissions and 55.53% (39.42%–68.56%) in influenza-attributable mortality. The intervention also yielded notable health benefits, including a 56.36% (40.21%–69.2%) decrease in life-years lost and a 57.3% (40.45%–70.37%) reduction in QALYs lost. These outcomes were observed across both vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, suggesting significant indirect (herd) protection. From an economic standpoint, the strategy was associated with cost savings of USD 321.22 million from the third-party payer perspective and USD 388.96 million from the broader societal perspective. Conclusion Expanding influenza immunization through a UIV program in Mexico may significantly reduce the disease burden and associated healthcare costs. The findings suggest that broader vaccine coverage could be a cost-effective and impactful strategy to improve population health outcomes.