Food Security, Myth or Reality? Forecasting Farmer-herder Conflict and Agricultural Output using Multivariate Time Series Analysis in Benue State, Nigeria

This study critically evaluates the correlation between farmer-herder conflict and food security in Benue State, Nigeria. Existing literature repeatedly views this conflict as a key determinant of food security in the state. Consequently, this research seeks to evaluate whether conflict fatalities significantly corroborate the perceived declining agricultural output. The research employed a multivariate time series analysis while relying on secondary data for conflict fatalities and agricultural output for yam, cassava, and rice from 2013 to 2025, with forecasts extending to 2030. The study integrates Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) to estimate the trend, with an AR(1) persistence factor ( p  = 0.95) for the forecast. Grounded in Environmental Scarcity Theory, this approach enables the quantification of causal imprints of persistent shocks on agricultural output. Contrary to the popular opinion in literature, results reveal sustained agricultural growth despite increasing conflict fatalities. Key agricultural produce, such as yam, cassava, and rice, demonstrate sustained upward trajectories with stabilized CAGRs of 9.50%, 1.18%, and 7.67%, even when the annual growth rate of conflict fatalities was at 5.44%. This suggests that the intensity of conflict does not strongly correlate with agricultural output in the dataset.The study concludes by emphasizing the need for policymakers to work with relevant stakeholders like media houses and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), to promote public narratives on food security that are evidence-based and data-driven rather than exaggerated claims that misrepresent Nigeria in the committee of nations.