Global patterns, supply-chain flows, and driving factors of forest loss footprints from 2001 to 2022

Monitoring forest loss is critical to keeping global warming below 1.5°C, yet achieving zero deforestation remains elusive. Despite extensive national monitoring and high-resolution earth observation data, deforestation persists due to a limited understanding of the human and economic mechanisms driving forest conversion. Here, we develop a state-of-the-art analytical framework to disentangle these dynamics by tracing forest loss—driven by logging, permanent agriculture, commodity production, and infrastructure expansion—through global supply chains to the consumer side, termed the forest loss footprint. This approach bridges the gap between fine-scale remote sensing data and aggregated economic accounts. We further apply machine learning techniques to identify key socioeconomic drivers behind consumption-induced forest loss. Our results show that 38.15% (13.12 Mha in 2022) of global forest loss is embodied in international trade, with five countries (Brazil, the United States, China, Indonesia, and Russia) accounting for 48.16% of global deforestation. China and Russia exhibit polarizing trends that amplify global forest pressures. Among drivers, the shares of food imports and the urban population emerge as dominant factors explaining cross-national patterns of forest loss. This integrated framework offers a robust, data-driven foundation for advancing global forest conservation and promoting equitable responsibility across international supply chains.