Circumstances, Culture, and Inequality of Opportunity in Mexico: Integrating Roemer's Framework with Lamont's Cultural Processes Theory

This paper integrates Roemer’s ex-ante inequality of opportunity (IOp) frame­work with Lamont et al. (2014) cultural processes theory (racialization, stigma­tization, standardization, and evaluation) to both measure and interpret IOp in Mexico. Using nationally representative data from the ESRU-EMOVI 2023 sur­vey (N = 13 , 164 ), we apply conditional inference trees with Shapley value decomposition across a standard (K = 9 ) and an expanded (K = 12 ) spec­ification. IOp accounts for 26.6% to 30.6% of total income inequality (MLD). Household economic conditions at origin emerge as the single most impor­tant circumstance (20.8%), displacing parental education and occupation. Sex is the second-largest contributor (14.6%) and remains stable when household wealth is controlled, revealing gender-based evaluation as an independent IOp source. Geographic circumstances explain over a quarter of IOp through ter­ritorial stigmatization. Skin tone contributes modestly (1.1–2.4%), suggesting racialization operates as a distal process mediated through household wealth and educational access. Cohort analysis reveals declining total inequality (p < 0 . 001 ) alongside a suggestive increase in the IOp share (p = 0 . 061 ). These findings demonstrate that integrating cultural theory with quantitative measurement enriches both the estimation and interpretation of how birth circumstances shape economic outcomes. JEL Classification: D63 , J62 , Z13 , O15