The Mechanisms of China's Fertility Intentions from an Institutional Embeddedness Perspective: Gender Norms, Hukou Segmentation Pathways, and Policy Implications

China's fertility rate continues to decline, yet rural populations with lower average incomes exhibit stronger fertility intentions (FI) than their urban counterparts. This "low-income, high-intention" phenomenon poses a challenge to traditional economic theories. This study addresses this puzzle by investigating Chinese fertility decision-making through the integrated lens of "institutional embeddedness". Drawing on five waves of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS, 2012-2021) and employing hierarchical regression and mediation analysis, it examines how the hukou system, gender norms, and subjective well-being interact to shape fertility intentions. It demonstrates that institutional structures, rather than economic calculus alone, are the dominant drivers. This occurs because the hukou system creates a resource buffer in rural areas, while gender norms asymmetrically channel men’s and women’s social mobility expectations into reproductive plans. These findings challenge the generalizability of rational choice models, highlight the deterministic role of locally embedded institutions on demographic outcomes, and provide a more refined theoretical framework for policy design.