Risk Mapping and Determinants of the Potential Presence of Anopheles stephensi in Benin: A Geostatistical and Logistic Regression Approach

Background Anopheles stephensi is an emerging malaria vector, historically confined to Asia but recently reported in several African countries. Its ability to adapt to urban environments represents a growing threat to vector control strategies. In Benin, the presence of environmental conditions conducive to its establishment suggests a potential risk of occurrence, although this has not yet been confirmed by comprehensive entomological data. This study aimed to identify determinants associated with the risk of potential presence of Anopheles stephensi and to map its probable spatial distribution at the national level. Methods An ecological study covering the 77 municipalities of Benin was conducted using agricultural, livestock, socioeconomic, demographic, and environmental data collected between March and May 2025. The dependent variable did not reflect observed vector presence but rather an indicator of the ecological suitability of larval habitats to support Anopheles stephensi . Multivariable logistic regression, followed by probabilistic spatial modeling, was used to estimate the likelihood of potential vector presence. Results Human population density (p = 0.001) and swine population size (p < 0.001) were positively associated with the risk of potential presence of Anopheles stephensi , whereas cattle, sheep, and goat populations showed significant negative associations. The maps produced represent probabilities of occurrence rather than confirmation of actual vector presence. Conclusion This study highlights areas of Benin with a high probability of potential presence of Anopheles stephensi . These findings provide decision-support tools to guide prioritized entomological surveillance and preventive interventions before confirmed establishment of the vector.