The Impact of Climate Variations on the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Dengue Cases in Côte d'Ivoire from 2017 to 2024

Introduction Dengue is a viral disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti, which is particularly prevalent in tropical regions such as Côte d'Ivoire. This study aims to analyze the influence of climatic variables (temperature and humidity) on the temporal, spatial, and epidemiological distribution of dengue cases in Côte d'Ivoire from 2017 to 2024. Methods A retrospective, analytical, cross-sectional observational study was conducted using national epidemiological surveillance data on dengue and climate data. The analysis included lagged temporal correlations, multivariate logistic modeling, and spatial analysis via GIS. Variables included suspected and confirmed cases of dengue, meteorological data, and sociodemographic characteristics. Results Dengue cases were highly concentrated in Abidjan, with a seasonal pattern linked to the rainy season and average temperatures between 25 and 28°C. The most significant correlation with incidence was observed with a 4- to 6-week lag relative to climate variables. Serotypes 1 and 3 dominated viral circulation. Age, dengue vaccination status, and serotype were the factors significantly associated with case positivity. Conclusion The results confirm the important role of lagged climatic variables in the epidemic dynamics of dengue. Urban environmental conditions favor vector proliferation. This study supports the importance of integrating climate data into surveillance and prevention, particularly through early warning systems based on climate thresholds.