Evaluating Multi-Decadal Land Degradation and Anthropogenic Greening in Mediterranean Coastal Ecosystems: A Geospatial-Based Assessment of Tartus, Syria

Land degradation remains a critical environmental challenge in the Mediterranean basin, exacerbated by rapid land-use transitions, climate variability, and anthropogenic pressure. This study assesses the land degradation risk and environmental dynamics in the Tartus Governorate, Syria, over a comprehensive 37-year period (1985–2022). Utilizing the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Priority Actions Programme/Regional Activity Centre (PAP/RAC) methodology, we integrated multi-temporal Landsat imagery (5 TM, 8 OLI, and 9 OLI) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to map Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes and vegetation health via the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Our spatial analysis incorporated 14 diverse socio-economic and biophysical variables to determine the land degradation risk according to the PAP/RAC consolidated methodology. Results indicate a profound environmental restructuring of the governorate. While Agricultural Area remained the dominant land cover (64.54% in 1985 to 62.78% in 2022), Urban Areas experienced a massive expansion of 273.61%, largely at the expense of primary Closed Broadleaf Deciduous forests, which were almost entirely depleted. Concurrently, a significant "anthropogenic greening" trend was observed, with the Mean NDVI rising from 0.313 to 0.459, primarily driven by the intensification of irrigated agricultural practices and greenhouse farming. Despite this apparent greening, the PAP/RAC model identifies that 80.34% of the landscape is stable, yet approximately 108.77 km² (5.71% of the territory) is classified as a high-priority unstable zone. These hotspots are predominantly characterized by severe sheet and rill erosion in the mountainous eastern and northern districts. These findings emphasize that vegetation density alone does not equate to land stability. The study concludes that immediate curative interventions and integrated coastal zone management are essential to mitigate irreversible soil loss in these high-priority unstable zones, providing a scalable model for Mediterranean environmental recovery.