Geospatial Prioritization for Land Degradation Restoration: A 37-Year Assessment of the Syrian Coastal Region

The Mediterranean region, a global hotspot for soil degradation, faces intensifying pressures from climate change and anthropogenic activities. This study addresses a critical research and policy gap by providing a spatially explicit, science-based framework to assess land degradation risk and prioritize conservation actions in the Syrian Coastal Region,a vital socio-ecological zone in the eastern Mediterranean. We applied an integrated geomatics approach, combining the United Nations Environment Programme Priority Actions Programme Regional Activity Centre (UNEP-PAP/RAC) diagnostic framework with multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1985–2022). Biophysical and socio-economic variables were synthesized within a GIS environment and validated through 248 field sites. Analyses included land degradation mapping, conservation priority assessment, land use/land cover (LULC) change detection, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) trend analysis. Approximately 17.53% (764.76 km²) of the coastal landscape is actively unstable, with sheet erosion dominating degradation processes. Spatial prioritization identified 6.77% of the region as “Unstable High Priority” zones requiring urgent intervention. LULC analysis revealed profound environmental restructuring: a 197.5% expansion of urban areas and a critical 71.2% loss of closed needleleaf forests over 37 years. NDVI trends exhibited an “anthropogenic greening” paradox, with a 44% increase in mean NDVI largely driven by agricultural intensification, masking the ongoing degradation of natural forest ecosystems. The study delivers a replicable, spatially explicit tool for targeting soil conservation and restoration efforts, directly supporting Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) targets and sustainable land management policies. The findings underscore the necessity of integrating remote sensing diagnostics into municipal master planning and environmental regulation to bridge the gap between scientific assessment and actionable policy. This approach can enhance stakeholder comprehension, guide resource allocation, and foster effective implementation of national and regional environmental strategies in vulnerable Mediterranean coastal regions.