Prior achievement, socioeconomic status, and baseline proficiency in PISA 2022: Evidence from linked national and international large-scale assessment data in Peru

Background. This study examines how students’ prior learning trajectories shape the PISA 2022 outcomes of Peruvian students. Although recent results from large-scale assessments show improvements in average learning levels, a substantial proportion of students still fail to reach expected academic standards. Understanding the origins of this persistent learning lag requires examining students’ earlier achievement and its relationship with later outcomes. Methods. National and international large-scale assessment datasets were linked to construct measures of prior achievement ( n  = 4,666). Multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models were estimated to examine the association between prior achievement and students’ odds of reaching baseline proficiency (Level 2 or above) in PISA 2022. The additional contributions of socioeconomic background at both the individual and school levels, attitudinal and instructional factors, and student gender were examined after controlling for prior achievement. Results. Students who attained higher achievement levels in the national test were substantially more likely to reach baseline proficiency in PISA. The effects of socioeconomic background were markedly smaller than those of prior achievement. Growth mindset was positively associated with higher odds of reaching Level 2 in reading. In mathematics, domain-specific attitudinal variables showed a heterogeneous pattern of associations, while none of the instructional variables were statistically significant. Male students exhibited lower odds of reaching baseline proficiency in reading but higher odds in mathematics compared to female students. Conclusions. Overall, the results highlight the cumulative nature of learning and reveal substantial learning gaps affecting students from disadvantaged contexts. They underscore the challenges faced by the Peruvian education system in ensuring that students who fall behind in the early stages of schooling develop the mathematical and reading skills required for full participation in society. The findings point to the importance of early, targeted educational policies aimed at supporting lagging students, particularly those from economically disadvantaged backgrounds.