Identification of Early Symptoms Associated with Subsequent Immune-related Adverse Events in the I-SPY clinical trial

Background Immune checkpoint inhibitors can result in serious, long-lasting immune-related adverse events (irAEs). Early identification of symptoms predictive of irAEs could enhance monitoring and timely intervention. This study assessed whether symptoms within the first 8 weeks of treatment could predict subsequent development of immune-related adrenal insufficiency(AI) or hypothyroidism. Methods This retrospective cohort study analyzed prospectively collected data from the I-SPY2 trial, a phase 2 platform trial for high-risk stage II/III breast cancer across 30 U.S. sites. The cohort included 482 women treated with experimental immunotherapy agents concurrent with weekly paclitaxel neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The primary outcomes were grade ≥ 1 hypothyroidism or AI, adjudicated by an independent safety group, up to 1-year post-treatment. Symptoms and irAEs were assessed using the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events. Symptom burden was quantified as area under the curve (AUC) based on symptom grade and duration. Predictive modeling was performed using logistic regression and ROC analysis; symptom enrichment between cases and controls was evaluated using Fisher’s exact tests. Results Among 482 participants, 107 (22.2%) developed irAEs, with hypothyroidism (n = 61, 12.7%) occurring more frequently than AI (n = 38, 7.9%) at medians of 99 and 105 days from treatment initiation, respectively. Symptom enrichment analysis identified early predictive symptoms. Fatigue (17.2% vs 6.8%, p = 0.011) and rash (20.7% vs 7.8%, p = 0.0037) were predictive of hypothyroidism, while diarrhea (45.9% vs 31%, p = 0.048), constipation (5.4% vs 0.2%, p = 0.018), and taste changes (5.4% vs 0.5%, p = 0.034) were associated with AI. A predictive model demonstrated moderate performance (AUC 0.65 for AI, p < 0.0001; AUC 0.61 for hypothyroidism, p = 0.012). Model accuracy in an external validation cohort was 72.8% for AI and 74.7% for hypothyroidism. Conclusions This study presents a predictive framework to identify patients at risk for adrenal insufficiency and hypothyroidism as irAEs, enabling personalized care and proactive intervention to improve treatment outcomes and safety.