Reinvesting water savings to increase U.S. food production

Rising food demand is straining limited water resources in U.S. agriculture, and although efficiency improvements aim to conserve water, farmers often reinvest savings to expand production—a rebound effect that, if strategically guided, can boost food output within existing water limits. Using AquaCrop-OS, we quantify how adopting high-efficiency irrigation systems and mulching affects irrigation water use for 13 major U.S. crops and evaluate the national potential to reallocate saved water. We estimate water savings of 27.4 km³ annually (approximately 30% of current use), and reallocating this water within the same subwatersheds could expand irrigation by 6.2 million ha and increase production by 21 million metric tons (8.9% gain) valued at $4.7 billion. By linking efficiency gains to potential production outcomes, this study shows that directing rebound-driven water reuse offers a promising pathway to increase food output without increasing water diversions or converting substantial new land.