Future Land Use Scenarios for Pasture in the Brazilian Cerrado: Agriculture, Livestock and Regeneration

Pastures are estimated to cover approximately 47 Mha (24%) of the Brazilian Cerrado with a wide variety of productivity. Political and environmental interest is currently focused on increasing production and reducing carbon emissions, while, while concerns remain about whether this can be done without additional deforestation. We present two future land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Cerrado that take into account expected production volume of soybean and cattle in 2030. Using the Century ecosystem model, we identify where pasture improvement would yield the greatest increase in stocking capacity and distribute the estimated herd for 2030. Likewise, additional soybean production is allocated to areas with agronomic potential and existing infrastructure. We then examine remaining pasture areas for regeneration potential and estimate the effects on soil and biomass carbon stocks under these scenarios. Under modeled biophysical assumptions and assumed rapid adoption, improving ~ 13 Mha of low and medium vigor pasture could allow the estimated herd of 61 MUA to occupy ~ 29 Mha of the Cerrado, allowing 3.1 Mha for soy expansion and ~ 18 Mha for regeneration of savanna or other uses. Based on these future land-use scenarios, carbon stocks increase by up to 0.23 Pg in 2030 and 0.47 Pg in 2050.These scenarios suggest that existing open areas of the Cerrado can support livestock production, soybean expansion, additional agriculture, and regeneration, allowing increased carbon sequestration in the Cerrado biome without additional deforestation.