Risk Estimation of Cardiovascular Disease in Qatar’s Primary Care Settings: Application of QRISK3 Algorithm and Sociodemographic Predictors

Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) remain the leading cause of mortality worldwide, with a growing burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Despite high prevalence of metabolic and lifestyle-related risk factors in Qatar, no locally validated risk prediction tool exists. This study aimed to estimate 10-year CVD risk using the QRISK3 algorithm in Qatar’s primary care setting and identify key predictors of high risk. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among adults (>18 years) registered with the Primary Health Care Corporation (PHCC). QRISK3 scores were calculated for participants without established CVD using demographic, clinical, and laboratory data. High risk was defined as QRISK3 ≥10%. Logistic regression was used to identify independent predictors. Results: Of 1,606 eligible participants, 24.5% were classified as high risk and 15.6% had prevalent CVD, indicating that approximately 40% of adults assessed required preventive or secondary care interventions. Age was the strongest predictor (OR=612.6 for ≥60 years vs. <40 years), followed by male sex (OR=5.8), Southern Asian nationality (OR=6.8), Class II obesity (OR=6.4), and residence in Doha (OR=2.3). The final model demonstrated 85.5% predictive accuracy. Conclusions: Nearly one-quarter of adults without established CVD in Qatar’s primary care settings are at high predicted risk, highlighting the need for targeted prevention strategies. The study further advocates the significance and utility of QRISK3 as a risk‑stratification tool for guiding prevention efforts. Its integration into routine primary care assessment may support early identification of individuals who would benefit from lifestyle counseling, risk factor modification, and targeted clinical & preventive interventions.