Multi-Temporal Landscape Dynamics, Driving Forces and Land Surface Transition Intensities of the Ankobra River Basin (ARB), S/W, Ghana

Understanding the characteristics of a degraded peri-urban watershed is crucial for sustainable ecosystem management. This study adopted the FAO LCCS, supervised classification, intensity analysis, the Markov-Chain, and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods to evaluate the past, present, and future land use land cover (LULC) variations and transition intensities, along with their driving forces within the Ankobra River Basin, Ghana. The study hypothesized no significant spatio-temporal LULC changes using the Paired Sample t-test. The null hypothesis was rejected, with evidence showing significant LULC change during the study period. A 33-year (1990–2023) Landsat imagery indicated an increased expanse in settlements/built-up, bare land, and mining excavations, while forests and agriculture/farms recorded a decreasing trend. Settlement/built-up areas increased from 159.90 km ² to 958.4 km ² between 1990 and 2023, with marginal trends in water and mangrove/wetland classes. Furthermore, mining excavations increased substantially from 6.81 km ² in 1990 to 642.0 km ² in 2023, while bare lands increased from 185.67 km ² in 1990 to 784.3 km ² in 2023. Conversely, agricultural/farms notably dropped from 2472.38 km ² in 1990 to 1892.20 km ² in 2023, while, similarly, evergreen forests dropped from 5576.79 km ² in 1990 to 3920.70 km ² in 2023. The interval period (2010–2023) experienced rapid transitions as compared to 1990–2000 and 2000–2010. The AHP analysis revealed that agricultural expansion, population pressure, logging, mining activities, and industrial expansion were the primary drivers of LULC changes. The findings, herein, prove that monitoring the dynamisms of ecosystems can provide insights for the sustainability, conservation, and management of global tropical ecosystems.