From Supply Chain Networks to Diplomatic Alignment: A Dynamic Network Analysis Using Temporal ERGMs

Global supply chains constitute dynamic and interdependent networks that link states through intermediate-goods trade and production. While a growing literature highlights the geopolitical implications of supply-chain dependence, less is known about how a country’s position within such networks is translated into institutionalized cooperation and subsequent changes in diplomatic behavior over time. This article addresses this gap by conceptualizing supply-chain capital as a form of network-based leverage that connects structural positions in supply-chain networks to foreign policy outcomes. Empirically, the study constructs directed and weighted intermediate-goods supply-chain networks using OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) data from 1995 to 2020 and combines them with data on Chinese-style strategic partnerships and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting. Temporal exponential random graph models (TERGMs) are employed to capture network dependence, tie formation, and temporal dynamics, supplemented by quasi-placebo tests to assess temporal ordering. The analysis shows, first, that China’s upstream position and export connectivity in intermediate-goods supply chains significantly increase the likelihood of forming strategic partnerships with other states. Second, once such partnerships are established, partner states exhibit systematic convergence toward China’s positions in UNGA voting, consistent with a dynamic pathway in which supply-chain linkages, mediated by institutional ties, precede shifts in diplomatic alignment. By integrating dynamic network modeling with international political economy, this article demonstrates how network position within global supply chains can be converted into institutional ties and diplomatic influence. The findings contribute to network science by illustrating how economic networks shape political behavior through endogenous, evolving relational structures.