Statistical Analysis and Predictive Modeling for Bridge Deterioration in Pennsylvania

With over 30,000 bridges, Pennsylvania ranks third in the number of bridges and sixth in the nation for bridges in poor condition, according to a 2023 analysis by the Transportation Advisory Committee (TRIP) ¹ . The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) handles supporting these structures. Given the essential role bridges play in supporting commercial, personal, and public transportation, the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) handles supporting these structures. This involves activities such as painting, superstructure replacement, substructure repair, rehabilitation, bridge replacement, and scour protection. PennDOT faces several factors, including the age of bridges, span length, material type, average daily traffic (ADT), and environmental factors. These factors contribute to the deterioration of bridge conditions and potential failure if no action is taken in the long term. This paper will provide a detailed statistical analysis of bridge deterioration across Pennsylvania, examining the factors and also exploring statistical methods, including multiple regression and survival analysis, to assess bridge conditions and predict hazard and time of bridge failure. The paper aims to offer solutions for rehabilitating and improving the condition of Pennsylvania's bridges.